## FX Backtest Results on MACD, RSI and SMI indicators

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This document studies financial technical indicators and compares Forex investment strategies based on these indicators over historical data.

MACD is a trailing momentum indicator that shows the difference between two moving averages of asset prices. There MACD may be interpreted in multiple formats, the most common of which are:. Signal line crossovers are the most common MACD signals.

The MACD values are compared to signal line while interpreting signal line crossovers. A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD turns up and crosses the signal line.

A bearish crossover occurs when the MACD turns down and crosses the signal line. Crossovers can last a few days or a few weeks, it all depends on the strength of the move. A bearish centerline crossover occurs when the MACD moves below the zero line to turn negative. A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own.

A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. Consider the following plot showing showing derivative prices alongside MACD values:. This index is is intended to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period.

A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:. The RSI chart ranges from 0 to An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback.

Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. The following plot charts RSI values computed over a period of 14 days. SMI helps you see where the current close has taken place relative to the midpoint of the recent high to low range is based on price change in relation to the range **forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction** the price.

The index oscillates between towhere negative values suggest closing point of a particular day falls below mid point of high low range and vice versa. This is similar to signal line crossovers as discussed in MACD. As the number of signal line crossovers are generally frequent it may result in a lower number of correct predictions. If the market moves nicely through the neutral zone with the trend in tact then you can tighten your stops or add to your trade if you wish.

Divergence is not very common but serves as an effective signal when generated. Divergence happens when prices are making higher highs and the Forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction is not.

This can happen on the sell side when the price is making lower lows and the SMI is not which would give you an opposing buy signal when price breaks relative resistance. In general, CCI measures the current price level relative to an average price level over a given period of time. CCI is relatively high when prices are far above their average. CCI is relatively low when prices are far below their average. In this manner, CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels.

The CCI is calculated as the difference between the typical price of a commodity and its simple moving average, divided by the mean absolute deviation of the typical price. The index is usually scaled by an inverse factor of 0. CCI may be used as a coincident or a leading indicator.

Bearish and Bullish divergences may be seen as a leading indicator. The concept of Divergence is also similar to as explained with relation to SMI. Unlike the RSI, calculations are based on data that has not been smoothed meaning extreme short-term movements are not hidden, so the indicator reaches overbought and oversold extremes more frequently.

The principle of divergence remains the same. For the purpose of backtesting and providing a broader picture, we consider the following two currency pairs: Our baseline strategy revolves around a simple buy and forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction strategy for the entire time domain. With considerable losses, we definitely want to perform significantly better than this. Along these lines, we also devise a stop loss signal that helps us exit our current long or short position if losses are more than 0.

The previous codes can be further expanded as follows to evaluate this strategy and generate a summary. This can be attributed to the fact that MACD is a trailing indicator and thus bullish and bearish trends loose steam by the time buy or sell signal are generated. Results are also below par if we consider a Long-Short strategy.

These results point out that MACD signal line crossovers shall not be solely considered for entry and exit decisions.

We compute our RSI index using day exponential moving averages and the trading signals are generated as:. Again pointing out to the fact that no single indicator can cover the entire derivable technical information.

The previous two strategies can be combined to generate new signals that complement each other. The process simply involves taking a logical AND of the preceding signals.

It can be seen as a logical elimination of false signals as observed in both cases, an implication of this may be the limited number of trading signals though with a higher accuracy. The success of this strategy can be attributed to the combined knowledge provided by MACD and RSI, which help jointly validate price trends.

The SMI scores are computed using the default period of 13 days with 2 day period for initial smoothing and 25 day period for double smoothing and a 9 day period for the signal line. As discussed earlier we can forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction this strategy using a confirmation window wherein we observe asset price movement in a fixed zone of SMI values before taking any trading decisions.

As observed in the performance plot above this strategy works quite well as compared to the previous strategy in a trending scenario though same performance is not reciprocated in the sideways volatile scenario as shown below. As discussed earlier the signals generated using crossovers are plenty and are subject to false swings. The following code snippet and performance charts reflect the same. To get the best of both approaches a combination of both indicators is tested against both our sample cases.

The same is depicted in forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction code below followed by performance charts for both our test cases. The mixed strategy provides a decent run over USDCHF pair initially unlike other strategies but succumbs to generate losses with an unprecedented downward shift in asset prices.

SMI strategies perform specifically well on trending time series through performance over sideways time series can be improved merging SMI based indicators with other technical indicators. This also serves as our future area of interest. Typically CCI values are computed on 20 day period but a smaller or bigger period can be used to address different concerns.

A smaller period, say 10 day period would be more volatile and thus generate a large number of signals. This is a recognized weakness of this strategy is also seen in the case of RSI. Still, for the purpose of testing it out the following code snippet depicts this strategy as implemented over USDEUR time series. Notice the absence of frequent signals as speculated earlier given the case of a strong uptrend. For our examples crossover below 50 are considered confirmation of overbought level thus allowing us to sell where as crossover above serve as confirmation for oversold levels, generating a buy signal.

As shown above, this strategy offers a pretty decent return on initial investment. For a sideways trend as in the case of USDCHF pair, we are able to generate a positive result from the above strategy. The code snippet below also searches for instances of divergence though it is not used to generate any signals. The data table finally generated can be used to assess the impact of divergence on the currency pair.

Thus, avoiding the jargon we can simply proceed to the testing part. As observed above CMO is not as versatile as CCI indicator especially using a confirmation zone, possibly because the trend has already matured before a confirmation is received.

Your email address will not be published. Skip to content Tuesday, June 16, Mehul Dhikonia InfoTrie Introduction This document studies financial technical forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction and compares Forex investment strategies based on these indicators over historical data. Currently, this report features only the following two indicators: There MACD may be interpreted in multiple formats, the most common of which are: Divergence A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own.

Consider the following plot showing showing derivative prices alongside MACD values: Relative Strength Index RSI This index is is intended to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period.

It is calculated using the following formula: Stochastic Momentum Index SMI SMI helps you see where the current close has taken place relative to the midpoint forex trading strategy combining the moving average convergence divergence and the average direction the recent high to low range is based on price change in relation to the range of the price.

SMI Divergence Divergence is not very common but serves as an effective signal when generated. It is calculated as: Backtesting Investment Strategies For the purpose of backtesting and providing a broader picture, we consider the following two currency pairs: Baseline Strategy Our baseline strategy revolves around a simple buy and holds strategy for the entire time domain.

Buy or long signal is generated when RSI moves above 30 marks and crosses an oversold threshold of A sell signal is generated when RSI falls below 70 marks and crosses the overbought threshold of An entry signal is also generated when RSI values are lurking in mid range and crosses the 60 mark, indicating an uptrend. The intuition behind this entry point is that the underlying security is resisting uptrend and breaks out as RSI goes above the 60 mark.

The following code may be used to derive the results: SMI The SMI scores are computed using the default period of 13 days with 2 day period for initial smoothing and 25 day period for double smoothing and a 9 day period for the signal line. Signal Line Crossovers As discussed earlier the signals generated using crossovers are plenty and are subject to false swings.

CCI Typically CCI values are computed on 20 day period but a smaller or bigger period can be used to address different concerns. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published.